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More than 410,000 people in the US coronavirus death from the coronavirus by January 1, more than doubling the current death toll, a new model often cited by top health officials predicted Friday.

That would mean 224,000 more lives lost in the US over the next four months.

Near-universal mask use could cut the number of projected additional fatalities by more than half, according to the model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. But it also warns the cumulative death toll could be much higher by the new year if all restrictions are eased.

“If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000,” according to IHME’s briefing.

The death rate could reach nearly 3,000 a day by December, an unprecedented number, due in part to “declining vigilance of the public,” the IHME expects. For now, the model points to declining mask use in some regions from peak usage in early August.


The IHME model is more aggressive in its predictions than others. It comes a day after a new CDC ensemble forecast predicted 211,000 US deaths from Covid-19 by September 26.

Coronavirus has infected over 6.1 million people nationwide, and more than 186,800 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Fauci: US has to get the baseline of cases down

Dr. Anthony Fauci says there is only one way to prevent the death toll reaching the numbers predicted in this new model. “We’ve got to get our baseline back down to a much lower level,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN.

Currently, the US is seeing about 40,000 cases a day, but if the baseline of cases is lowered, the country could get a better handle on stopping the spread, according to Fauci. Read More…………………

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